Least Valuable Draft Picks: Linebackers

Least Valuable Draft Picks: Defensive Backs

Least Valuable Draft Picks: Defensive Linemen

Least Valuable Draft Picks: Tight Ends and Offensive Linemen

It's hard to quantify the (lack of) success for offensive linemen due to the scarcity of statistics to gauge them by.  Nonetheless, these are the biggest busts among O-linemen based on games started (very few) and Pro Bowls (none of them made one).

Least Valuable Draft Picks: Running Backs

Least Valuable Draft Picks: Quarterbacks

In response to the NFL's Most Valuable Draft Picks (and Jamarcus Russell being released), I've decided to make a list of the Least Valuable Draft Picks in NFL history (post-merger 1970-2009).

Is McNabb even worth a second rounder?

Here is a look at notable QBs who have been traded and the compensation received for them.  All of these trades occurred when the quarterback was already an established NFL player; thus, trades such as Elway to DEN, Favre to GB, Young to SF, and Manning/Rivers are not included.

First up is a comparison of QBs who were closest in age to McNabb (33) when they were traded:

 

Here are other notable QBs who were traded and the compensation received for them:

This why Darren Sharper is still unsigned

To say that the Saints got Darren Sharper at a bargain in 2009 would be an understatement.  Sharper was the 36th highest paid safety last season at about $1.7 million.  He made less than such guys as Sean Considine (JAX) and Will Allen (TB), two guys who didn't even start for their teams.  With Sharper getting 9 INTs and garnering an All-Pro selection, it's clear that he outplayed his contract that he signed with New Orleans.  So why is he still not signed as of March 23?  The charts below may provide some insight:

 

Age Study: NFL Wide Receivers

Note: If a player's birthday occurred during the season, then that entire season would be counted under the age in which he turned.  Ex: Reggie Wayne turned 31 mid-season in November 2009 so his entire 2009 season is classified at the age of 31.

NFL WR Catch % (35-50 Receptions)

This chart shows the Catch % of the NFL wide receivers who had in between 35 and 50 receptions in 2009. This is different than the catch % you may have seen on other sites because this chart completely removes the QB out of the equation. Other sites describe catch % as the number of receptions divided by the number of times targeted. This is simply the number of receptions divided by the number of catchable passes (receptions/(receptions + drops)). For example, if a player had 90 receptions but 10 drops then his catch % would be (90/(90+10)) = 90%. Poor, off-target passes are taken out of the equation so this gauges a receiver's hands instead of factoring in his QB's ability (or inability) to deliver an on-target pass.

NFL Running Backs' Catch %

This chart shows the Catch % of the NFL running backs who had at least 30 receptions in 2009. This is different than the catch % you may have seen on other sites because this chart completely removes the QB out of the equation. Other sites describe catch % as the number of receptions divided by the number of times targeted. This is simply the number of receptions divided by the number of catchable passes (receptions/(receptions + drops)). For example, if a player had 90 receptions but 10 drops then his catch % would be (90/(90+10)) = 90%. Poor, off-target passes are taken out of the equation so this gauges a receiver's hands instead of factoring in his QB's ability (or inability) to deliver an on-target pass.

NFL Tight Ends Catch %

This chart shows the Catch % of the top 30 NFL tight ends in 2009. This is different than the catch % you may have seen on other sites because this chart completely removes the QB out of the equation. Other sites describe catch % as the number of receptions divided by the number of times targeted. This is simply the number of receptions divided by the number of catchable passes (receptions/(receptions + drops)). For example, if a player had 90 receptions but 10 drops then his catch % would be (90/(90+10)) = 90%. Poor, off-target passes are taken out of the equation so this gauges a receiver's hands instead of factoring in his QB's ability (or inability) to deliver an on-target pass.

NFC WR Catch % (50 or more receptions)

This chart shows the Catch % of the NFC wide receivers with at least 50 receptions in 2009. This is different than the catch % you may have seen on other sites because this chart completely removes the QB out of the equation. Other sites describe catch % as the number of receptions divided by the number of times targeted. This is simply the number of receptions divided by the number of catchable passes (receptions/(receptions + drops)). For example, if a player had 90 receptions but 10 drops then his catch % would be (90/(90+10)) = 90%. Poor, off-target passes are taken out of the equation so this gauges a receiver's hands instead of factoring in his QB's ability (or inability) to deliver an on-target pass.

AFC WR Catch % (50 or more receptions)

This shows the Catch % of the AFC wide receivers with at least 50 receptions in 2009. This is different than the catch % you may have seen on other sites because this chart completely removes the QB out of the equation. Other sites describe catch % as the number of receptions divided by the number of times targeted. This is simply the number of receptions divided by the number of catchable passes (receptions/(receptions + drops)). For example, if a player had 90 receptions but 10 drops then his catch % would be (90/(90+10)) = 90%. Poor, off-target passes are taken out of the equation so this gauges a receiver's hands instead of factoring in his QB's ability (or inability) to deliver an on-target pass.

Who are the AFC's most efficient pass rushers?

Why Rashard Mendenhall is so Vital to Ben Roethlisberger's Success

If I told you that Ben Roethlisberger posted a QB rating of 92.1 in the shotgun you may wonder why the Steelers don’t use that formation more often. But if I then told you that Roethlisberger has a QB rating of 109.9 when under center, then you may wonder why the Steelers use the shotgun period. That’s the question I’m wondering as well after Roethlisberger’s QB rating under center jumped 24 points from 2008 when it was around 85.

Perhaps the biggest reason why there was such a large jump for Big Ben is because of one player: Rashard Mendenhall. In 2008 the Steelers didn’t have much of a running game; the combo of Willie Parker and Mewelde Moore combined for just 3.9 yards per carry. In 2009 Mendenhall averaged 4.6 yards per carry, good enough for 7^th in the league for players with at least 200 carries. The reason why Mendenhall helps Roethlisberger when he’s under center is because of the threat of the run. Defenses have to prepare for the run or the pass from that formation which means they can’t commit to one or the other. Put 8 in the box and Pittsburgh will throw the ball. Drop your safeties 20 yards from the line of scrimmage and you can expect a handoff to Mendenhall. But when Roethlisberger is in the shotgun, then the defense knows what to expect. There’s no threat of the run so the defenders can just watch the man they are covering or the zone they are occupying and pay no attention to the running back. Take a look at the chart below and you can clearly see when the Steelers spread the field with receivers and take the threat of the run out of the equation, Roethlisberger’s rating recedes like Santonio Holmes’ hairline. Yes the numbers are somewhat ambiguous as related to being under center vs. the shotgun due to the Steelers running multiple-receiver sets while Roethlisberger is under center. But for the shotgun, there is ALWAYS at least 3 receivers in the formation. (In the chart below, receivers are defined as any player split wide or in the slot including running backs and tight ends who are flexed out).

Philip Rivers: King of the Long Ball

Every time I watched the Chargers play, it always amazed me how often Philip Rivers hooked up with one of his receivers for a deep pass. Lots of QBs pile up big numbers because their receivers gain YAC but it always seems that with the Chargers, most of their yardage comes from when the ball is in the air (Sproles not withstanding). Thus, I tracked down the stats of all of the playoff QBs' numbers when they throw a pass 30 or more yards.

It's important to note that these are not 30+ yard pass plays but rather only plays in which the ball was in the air for 30 or more yards. Here are the yardage results on these plays as well as the number of 30+ yard pass completions for each QB:


Rivers' efficiency in throwing the deep ball is unparalleled; in fact, McNabb and Romo were the only QBs who had more 30+ yard completions than Rivers had 40+ yard completions (7). It certainly helps to have a pair of 6'5" receivers who can go up and pull down the pass but you still have to be accurate enough to put the receiver in such a position. Much was made of Rivers' funky throwing motion when coming out of NC State, but none of that should matter for any QB as long as he can put the ball where it needs to be.

10 Things to Know before the Super Bowl

• The average number of points scored by the winning Super Bowl team is 30.1 points while the average for the losing team is 15.3 points.  However, those numbers are somewhat skewed by the assortment of rule changes that have favored the offenses.  Before the adoption of the illegal contact penalty in 1978, the average score was 23.4 to 9.6.

• Drew Brees has yet to win a playoff game outside of the Superdome.  If the Saints win the Super Bowl then Brees will become just the 8th QB to have his first career non-home playoff win come in the Super Bowl.  The last to do it was the recently retired Kurt Warner in 1999.

• By the time Super Bowl XLIV starts, it will have been exactly 400 days since the Colts lost a game in which Peyton Manning played into the 4th quarter and 504 days since they lost to a team that plays a 4-3 defense under that same condition.

• Speaking of 4-3 defenses: the Colts will finally play one in the playoffs for the first time since Super Bowl XLI against the Bears.  Indy has not lost a playoff game to a 4-3 team since January 4, 2003.

• If Adam Vinatieri plays vs. the Saints then it will be his sixth Super Bowl which will tie the most ever by a single player (Mike Lodish).  If the Colts win then Vinatieri will have five Super Bowl wins which will tie him with Charles Haley for the most all-time.

• The Colts’ current starting kicker, Matt Stover turned 42 on January 27, 2010 which means he will be the oldest player to ever play in the Super Bowl once the game comes around.

• Jim Caldwell will seek to become the 3rd rookie head coach to win a Super Bowl joining George Seifert and Don McCafferty.  Like Seifert (Walsh) and McCafferty (Shula), Caldwell is following in the footsteps of a hall of fame coach (Dungy) and all 3 coaches had the luxury of coaching a QB that can arguably be considered the greatest of all time.  (McCafferty had Unitas, Seifert had Montana, and Caldwell has Manning).

• Drew Brees has fumbled 6 times in 5 career playoff games and he has fumbled 12 times in 17 games played this season.  That’s not good news especially considering the fact that Robert Mathis leads the NFL with 31 FFs since 2004 and Dwight Freeney is 3rd over that span with 23 FFs.

• If the Saints are to win then Brees will have to overcome his history of poor performances in Miami.  In two career games at Pro Player/Dolphin Stadium, Brees has thrown 1 TD compared to 4 INTs while being sacked 8 times.

• Speaking of playing surface, Brees has struggled when playing on grass this year as compared to turf while Manning has actually played better on grass than turf despite playing his home games in a dome.  Here is how their numbers stack up when playing on grass:

Charlie Weis has his hands full in KC

When you take a look at Matt Cassel's 2008 stats and you factor in the appointment of Charlie Weis as Chiefs' OC, you realize that Kansas City is faced with a paradox: Charlie Weis loves to employ the spread offense which frequently has at least 3, but often 4 or 5 receivers on the field at a time. But Cassel struggles in multiple receiver sets where its tougher to read defenses and throw the ball downfield. (With the stats above, receivers are counted as anyone who lines up out wide or in the slot; thus, running backs and tight ends flexed out are counted as receivers).

So what should the Chiefs do? Forcing Cassel into the spread could be like fitting a square peg into a round hole. I thought about the Chiefs possibly utilizing Cassel more in the shotgun which would give him a little more time to avoid the rush and a better look at the defensive alignment. However, that idea was put to rest once I saw these stats:

A Look at QB Rating Allowed by the Top Cornerbacks

• Perhaps 2009 was Ronde Barber's last season (at CB at least).  He played 1059 snaps (4th most among CBs) but failed to get an INT for the first time in his career.  He also allowed the second highest QB rating when thrown at and only at 6 PDs which was tied for 41st in the league.
  
• Nnamdi Asomugha was only thrown at 22 times!  That's fewer than 2 passes per game and 19 fewer times than the second-least targeted CB, Al Harris (who missed nearly half the season).
• Darrelle Revis certainly lived up to his rep as the NFL's best cover corner.  He allowed just 2 TDs-to Randy Moss (view video-starts at 1:12) and to Ted Ginn (view video) despite being thrown at 111 times which was the 3rd most in the NFL.  Revis also led the NFL in pass deflections and allowed a completion % of 36.9 which was also the best in the league.
• It's no surprise the Rams are picking first as their CBs finished first and seventh in terms of highest QB rating allowed.
• Tracy Porter of the Saints had the most passes thrown at him without allowing a TD.  He allowed 44 receptions (80 attempts), 0 TDs, and 4 INTs.