The two biggest percentage drop-offs come at ages 33 and 36. At 33, there are 54% fewer occurrences of 30+ stolen bases seasons than at 32. At 36, there are 47% fewer occurrences of 30+ stolen bases than at 35. No other year-to-year drop-off has a percentage of over 40%. Why is there such a drop-off at these ages? I’ll leave that question to the mathematicians and instead, I will profile players who will be these ages in 2010 and point out their significant stats from ’09 that should help extrapolate their results for 2010. Let’s start with the old guys:
- Derek Jeter (turns 36 in June; 30 SB in 2009) How much of a difference did hitting first in the Yankees’ lineup affect Jeter’s stolen base opportunities? Jeter had 418 stolen base opportunities in 2009 after having 288 opportunities in 2008 when he hit second. That is a huge difference (just ask Johnny Damon) and let Jeter nearly triple his total of SB from 2008 (11). Those opportunities will still be there in 2010, but there is one stat that leads me to believe that Jeter’s legs won’t be as productive as last year and that is extra bases taken percentage (XBT%). Jeter’s career XBT% is 47% and the 2009 league average was 39%; but Jeter’s 2009 XBT% came in at just 38% which is the second lowest mark in his 14 year career. Need further proof that Jeter’s legs are not what they once were even with the 30 SB in 2009? In 2009 Jeter’s rate of grounding into a double play (GIDP %) was 17% which was 6% higher than the league average and the second highest percentage of his career. Prediction: 18-20 SB (hitting 1st), 14-17 SB (hitting 2nd).
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