Tuesday, March 16, 2010

Age Study: NFL Wide Receivers

Note: If a player's birthday occurred during the season, then that entire season would be counted under the age in which he turned.  Ex: Reggie Wayne turned 31 mid-season in November 2009 so his entire 2009 season is classified at the age of 31.

It's quite obvious from looking at the chart that the biggest drop-off occurs at the age of 36.  There are 73% fewer occurrences of 1000 yard receiving seasons at 36 than at 35.  In the 90 seasons of the NFL, there have only been 5 occurrences in which a player had 1000 receiving yards at the age of 36 or older and three of those were by the same player (Jerry Rice at ages 36, 39, and 40).  The other two were Joey Galloway and Jimmy Smith at age 36.

Notable receivers who will be on the wrong side of 35 in 2010 include Terrell Owens (37) and Derrick Mason (36).  With the Ravens' trade for Anquan Boldin, Mason is the clear #2 WR for a team that is run-first so his quest for a 9th 1000-yard receiving season (which would be tied for 3rd most all time) will likely fall short in 2010.  Owens doesn't have a team as of mid-March and is likely to latch on to a bottom-feeder as he did with Buffalo last year.  That's not good news for TO as in 2009 there were 20 receivers with 1000 yards but none of those 20 played on a team with a losing record.  It certainly won't help if TO is catching balls from someone like JaMarcus Russell, Jake Delhomme, or even Tim Tebow in 2010.  Owens doesn't have the speed of Galloway, the hands of Smith, or the dedication of Rice and it would be nothing short of a miracle if Owens can somehow go for 1,000 receiving yards in 2010.

No comments:

Post a Comment